Quality Ic Integrated Circuit & SMD Integrated Circuit factory

                                         A major event of the week 1. Netherlands Upgrades Semiconductor Export Controls, Ministry of Commerce: China firmly opposes 2. Omdia: The semiconductor market has set a record for 5 consecutive quarters of decline 3. Samsung's second quarter profit may plummet by 99% due to the drag of its chip business 4. Industry insiders: TSMC's 2nm quotation may approach $25000 5. Rumor has it that Intel will expand its price war in the third quarter, and AMD will reduce prices to respond                                                          Industry Trends and Prospects Netherlands Upgrades Semiconductor Export Controls, Ministry of Commerce: China firmly opposes      It is reported that the Netherlands has announced new export control measures that will restrict more ASML chip manufacturing equipment from being shipped to China. The new export control regulations will force ASML to apply for an export license when exporting some advanced deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) systems.   A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce stated that China has taken note of the relevant reports. In recent months, China and the Netherlands have conducted multi-level and multi-frequency communication and consultation on semiconductor export control issues. However, the Dutch side ultimately managed the relevant semiconductor equipment, and the Chinese side expressed dissatisfaction with this.                TSMC's US factories lack a supply chain, and the US expands subsidies for subsidized materials and equipment suppliers     According to the Wall Street Journal, the United States Department of Commerce announced that it would expand the implementation of the "Chip Act" subsidy, which was originally only for those who built new wafer factories in the United States, but now it is relaxed to include chemical, material, semiconductor equipment and other supply chain manufacturers.                                                       Nvidia: US Industry Will Lose Opportunities Forever     According to two insiders quoted by US media, the United States is considering further tightening export controls on artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China. In response, Colette Kress, chief financial officer of Nvidia, said: "In the long run, if the restrictions on the sale of data center graphics processing units to China are implemented, the opportunity for the US industry to compete and lead in one of the world's largest markets (China) will be permanently lost, and our future business and financial performance will be affected.     Institution: Global semiconductor capital expenditure will decrease by 14% year-on-year in 2023, with a 19% decrease in storage category     Semiconductor Intelligence, a well-known semiconductor analysis agency, analyzed the total capital investment of global semiconductor in 2023. The overall forecast of the institution is that capital expenditure will decrease by 14% in 2023. The largest reduction was made by storage companies, with a decrease of 19%.                 Omdia: The semiconductor market has set a record for 5 consecutive quarters of decline     Omdia's new research shows that semiconductor market revenue declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in the first quarter of 2023. This is the longest recorded period of decline since Omdia began tracking the market in 2002. The revenue for the first quarter of 2023 closed at $12.05 billion, a decrease of 9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.                 TrendForce: Driven by demand for AI and HPC, it is estimated that the demand for HBM capacity will increase by nearly 60% in 2023 simultaneously     According to TrendForce consulting research, high-end AI server GPUs equipped with HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) have become mainstream. It is estimated that the global demand for HBM will increase by nearly 60% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 290 million GB, and will grow by another 30% in 2024.                The performance of Semiconductor industry is weak, and South Korea has revised down the forecast value of economic growth rate in 2023     According to Yonhap News Agency, in order to reflect the impact of the weak performance of the Semiconductor industry this year, the Korean government will revise the economic growth rate forecast for 2023 from the original 1.6% to 1.4% -1.5%.              Da Mo: Mature process growth is weak, with estimated revenue growth of 0-5% in the third quarter      Morgan Stanley Securities released the report "The third quarter momentum of the mature process wafer foundries is still sluggish", which shows that the growth of the mature process wafer foundries is still weak, and they still have to face the pressure of low pricing and capacity utilization. The third quarter revenue is estimated to grow only 0-5% compared with the previous quarter.                                  

      Chips are an indispensable part of modern technology, widely used in electronic products such as smartphones, computers, tablets, etc. Recently, a chip manufacturer announced the launch of a new type of chip that can greatly improve the speed and performance of electronic products.         This chip uses advanced manufacturing technology and can accommodate more transistors in the same size. This means that it can provide higher performance at the same power consumption. In addition, the chip also has higher bandwidth and faster data transmission speed, allowing electronic products to run more smoothly.         The manufacturer stated that this chip can be applied to various electronic devices, including smartphones, computers, and tablets. They hope that this chip can help users better utilize existing devices and improve their work and entertainment experiences.         In addition, this chip also has lower power consumption, which will help reduce the energy consumption of electronic devices. This is very important for environmental protection and sustainable development.         In short, the launch of this new chip will bring higher performance and better user experience to electronic devices, while also benefiting environmental protection and sustainable development. We look forward to the further promotion and application of this chip.          

      In recent years, with the rapid development of information technology, chip technology has become an important pillar of modern society. However, globally, chip technology has always been a field dominated by developed countries such as the United States and Japan, making it difficult for other countries to make progress in this field. However, China's chip industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and domestic chips have gradually emerged as a topic of widespread concern.         Firstly, the development of domestically produced chips is a necessary path for the development of China's information technology industry. With the deepening of information technology construction, China's dependence on chip technology is becoming increasingly high, and the mastery and control of foreign chip technology is also becoming stronger. Developing domestically produced chips not only reduces external dependence, but also enhances the country's technological strength, which is conducive to the sustainable development of information technology construction.         Secondly, the development of domestically produced chips means that China's development position in the global economy has been elevated. Chip technology is an indispensable component of modern economy, and it has important significance in national economy, national defense, security, and other aspects. Therefore, the development of domestically produced chips can not only promote the development of China's chip industry, but also enhance the country's influence and competitiveness in the global economy.         Thirdly, the development of domestically produced chips has driven the transformation of Chinese manufacturing towards intelligent manufacturing. As the core technology of intelligent manufacturing, the development of chips will directly affect the upgrading and transformation of China's manufacturing industry. The development of domestically produced chips can not only improve the intelligence level of China's manufacturing industry, but also promote the improvement of quality and efficiency and the upgrading of industrial structure.           Although the development of domestic chips still faces some difficulties and challenges, such as the need for further improvement in technological level, difficulty in market development, and the need for increased capital investment, the development trend of China's chip industry is irreversible. With the strong support of the government and the active participation of enterprises, domestic chips will surely usher in broader development space.           In summary, the development of domestically produced chips is of great significance for China's information technology industry, economic development, and manufacturing transformation. In the process of the gradual rise of China's chip industry, domestic chips will play an increasingly important role in promoting China's information construction, economic development, and industrial transformation.                                      

On April 12th, it was reported that during the semiconductor bull market of the past two years, TSMC had originally planned to expand its mature 28nm production capacity and build a new wafer factory in Kaohsiung. However, it was recently reported that due to changes in demand,The message that all orders for 28nm devices have been cancelled.   TSMC's Kaohsiung new factory was originally scheduled for mass production next year, but there have been recent market reports of changes in factory construction plans, resulting in a one-year delay in the related mechanical and electrical engineering bid. The related cleanroom and installation operations have also been postponed, and the planned list of 28nm equipment purchased by the factory has also been completely cancelled.     Regarding this news, TSMC stated that the relevant process technology and schedule are determined by customer needs and market trends, and are currently in a period of silence before the French speaking meeting. It is not convenient to make further comments and will be explained at the French speaking meeting.   TSMC's 28nm process was first mass-produced with AMD's HD 7970 series graphics cards at the end of 2011. It has been 12 years now and has contributed significantly to TSMC's revenue, reaching a peak of nearly $7.5 billion. Although it has declined in the past two years, it remains above $5 billion.   In 2021, the 28nm process still contributed $5.41 billion in revenue, with an annual revenue of $56.8 billion, accounting for nearly 10%.   If we look at the entire industry,The total market for 28nm process outsourcing is about 7.2 billion US dollars, and TSMC alone has taken 3/4 of it, which is unmatched.   The current 28nm process is no longer capable of manufacturing high-end chips, but it is still sufficient for automotive chips, IoT IoT chips, power management chips, sensors, and other chips. After all, there are still a large number of 90nm to 55nm products on the market, and there is a high demand for upgrading to 28nm in the future. Market judgment shows that TSMC is facing more severe customer order cutting than expected.                        

01 TSMC's revenue has declined for the first time in four years     On April 20th, TSMC announced its results for the first quarter of the 2023 fiscal year. According to the report, sales in Q1 2023 decreased by 16.1% from $19.93 billion in Q4 2022, to $16.72 billion, and the operating profit margin decreased from 52.0% to 45.5% (Figure 1).   In the second half of 2022, the emergency state of the COVID-19 will end, semiconductor will enter a serious downward cycle, and TSMC will also be affected. However, although revenue has declined for the first time, its operating profit margin is still 45.5%,Compared to storage manufacturers such as Intel and Samsung, which are in serious deficit situations, TSMC always has a "special" presence.   This article will analyze why TSMC has significantly reduced its revenue and why.   In short, the conclusion is that semiconductors for the United States, cutting-edge (7nm and 5nm), high-performance computers (HPC: High Performance Computing), and smartphones are declining. Therefore, if demand for HPC and smartphones recovers, it can be predicted that TSMC's performance will improve.     02 Sales revenue of TSMC at each node     Figure 2 shows the quarterly sales of TSMC's various process nodes. As mentioned in previous articles, TSMC's sales have skyrocketed since the mass production of EUV equipment.     Firstly, TSMC first used EUV on 7nm+in Q3 2019. Initially, 4-5 layers of EUV were used in the hole pattern, and the 5nm produced in Q3 2020 also applied EUV in bulk in wiring. The author speculates that the EUV has approximately 15 layers.        Sales of less than $10 billion in Q3 2019 have doubled by Q3 2022,More than 20 billion US dollars. Through the mass production application of EUV at 7nm+and 5nm, it monopolized the world's cutting-edge chips, thereby driving rapid sales growth.        However, quarterly sales peaked in Q3 2022. As mentioned at the beginning, there was a significant decrease in revenue in the first quarter   of this year.       So, which process nodes are experiencing a decrease in sales?   03 Increase or decrease in sales revenue at each process node       Figure 3 shows the sales increase and decrease of each process node in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. zero point one eight μ Since m and 10nm have not been produced yet, their sales revenue is zero and there has been no change.   If 0.18 μ M and 10nm are excluded,Except for a slight increase in 65nm, sales at other process nodes have decreased.Therefore, TSMC's overall performance in Q1 2023 should be sluggish.   However, the most advanced 7nm and 5nm have significant reductions. 7nm and 5nm decreased by $1.04 billion and $1.19 billion respectively. The total decrease of 7nm and 5nm is 2.23 billion US dollars, accounting for 70% of the total decrease of 3.18 billion US dollars.   In summary, the reason for TSMC's sluggish performance in Q1 2023 is the significant decrease in sales of cutting-edge 7nm and 5nm. So, what semiconductor sales are decreasing using cutting-edge technologies such as 7nm and 5nm?     04 TSMC's various businesses Sales proportion   Figure 4 shows the sales ratio of TSMC in each business quarter. In Q1 2023, in descending order of sales share, smartphones accounted for 44%, high-performance computers (HPCs) accounted for 34%, IoT (Internet of Things) accounted for 9%, in car accounted for 7%, and digital consumer electronics accounted for 2%. Here, semiconductors used for HPC are considered CPUs and GPUs for PCs and servers (image processing processors for AI and other applications). Specifically, they include CPUs from AMD in the United States, GPUs from NVIDIA in the United States, and GPUs from Intel in the United States.   In this situation, it is noteworthy that the share of automotive applications decreased to 2% in the third quarter of 2020 due to a sharp decline in automotive demand, and then steadily increased to 7%, exceeding the pre pandemic level. On the other hand, HPC applications are two major businesses that are tied with smartphone applications and have decreased to 34%, a decrease of 7 percentage points from 41% in the third quarter of 2022.   Now, let's take a look at the sales charts for each platform based on amount (Figure 5). This shows a difference from the sales ratio.   Firstly, it can be seen that the sales ratio of smartphones and HPCs is around 40%, fluctuating on a currency basis while rapidly growing. Automotive applications also saw significant growth after a decline in the third quarter of 2020.   However, HPC application sales peaked at $8.3 billion in the third quarter of 2022 and decreased to $5.7 billion, less than 70%, in the first quarter of 2023. The sales of smartphone applications peaked at $8.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022 and decreased by $1 billion to $7.4 billion in the first quarter of 2023.   The above analysis by platform indicates that TSMC's performance significantly decreased in the first quarter of 2023, firstly due to a decrease in HPC shipments, and secondly due to a decrease in smartphone shipments.   05 Proportion of sales revenue in various regions of TSMC   Finally, let's take a look at TSMC's quarterly sales ratio by region (Figure 6). It can be seen that the market share in the United States is around 60-70%. However, it has decreased from 72% in the third quarter of 2022 to 63% in the first quarter of 2023.     On the other hand, after TSMC stopped shipping cutting-edge semiconductors to Huawei after September 14, 2020, its sales to Chinese Mainland fell from 22% in the third quarter of 2020 to 6% in the fourth quarter of the same year. However, since then, the export to Chinese Mainland has been gradually increasing and will recover to 15% in the first quarter of 2023. TSMC cannot transport high priced cutting-edge semiconductors to Chinese Mainland, so it can be said that it has transported a large number of low-cost traditional semiconductors.   06 What is the sales revenue by region?   According to Figure 6, we have plotted TSMC's quarterly sales by region (Figure 7). This shows a different perspective from the sales ratio chart.     Firstly, we can see that exports to the United States peaked at $14.6 billion in the third quarter of 2022 and significantly decreased to $10.5 billion in the first quarter of 2023, an increase of 72%.   07 What caused TSMC's revenue to decline significantly?   TSMC's performance in the first quarter of 2023 was the first significant decline in four years. Revenue decreased by approximately $3.2 billion to $16.7 billion from $19.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.   By analyzing the details of the decline in sales, sales of advanced 7nm and 5nm products have significantly decreased, sales of HPC and smartphones have significantly decreased by platform, and sales to the United States have significantly decreased by region.   Based on this analysis, it can be said that the recovery in semiconductor demand for HPC and smartphones produced using leading 7nm and 5nm processes in the US market will promote TSMC's performance. However, with the decline in smartphone shipments, people have high hopes for a resurgence in demand for CPU and GPU in data center servers.   The rapid popularization of interactive artificial intelligence is being seen globally, such as the ChatGPT released by OpenAI in November 2022. This is also expected to accelerate the popularization of supercomputers and data centers. By producing advanced semiconductors, TSMC's performance will definitely become positive again.                                                  

         In April, the latest quarterly financial reports of major chip manufacturers were released one after another, and most of them showed a downward trend in revenue. Even simulation leader TI saw a significant decline in revenue, but the automotive chip market still maintained growth. In terms of the market, apart from a small number of high-end materials and automotive chips, overall demand is sluggish, and the delivery times of major brands are also shortening and returning to normal cycles. In a pessimistic atmosphere, many people hope that AI demand represented by ChatGPT can bring rebound opportunities to the chip market.          We have compiled the latest spot market trends for chips such as TI, ST, Infineon, Microchip, NXP, ADI, and Reza for your reference.                                               TI: Analog chip revenue plummeted,Growth in the automotive sector only            In April, the demand of Texas Instruments was decreasing, the number of online materials in the auto chip market was significantly reduced, and the market price of general materials began to slowly return to normal. PMIC is showing a state of differentiation, and some models still have very high prices, such as 03853QDCARQ1. However, some prices are already at spot prices around the second half of 2021, and it is expected that Q2 spot market quotations will continue to gradually return to the trend of 20 year prices. Some conventional general materials have returned to 10-12 weeks, and the delivery time for high-end materials has not been fully alleviated.         TI's recent Q1 2023 financial report is not optimistic. Q1 revenue, operating profit, and net profit have all decreased year-on-year. Its flagship business, analog chip revenue, has decreased by 14%, embedded processor revenue has increased by 6.4%, and other revenue has decreased by 16%. Only the automotive market has achieved growth.                                       ADI: Shorten delivery time,Some popular models are still at high prices          In April, the spot prices of some popular out of stock models in ADI's LTM power chips remained high.          As the delivery time of most ADI materials is gradually shortened to 13 weeks, the attitude of downstream end customers towards the current excess spot inventory of ADI in April is relatively vague: on the one hand, they believe that there is still room for a decrease in spot prices, and on the other hand, they are only interested in ADI's futures prices but have not provided a confirmed scheduling plan, which may be affected by rumors that ADI's original factory will adjust prices in May.                                            Microchip: Overall delivery time is gradually recovering         At present, the popular demand for MCUs includes the irregular production scheduling of traditional ATMEL 8-bit and 16-bit MCUs. For example, some ATXMEGAx have a delivery time of 52 weeks, while some AT91x have gradually arrived. In addition, the original factory has announced a price increase of 5-10%, and there are also factors such as raw material shortages and price increases. The price of common materials has dropped significantly, such as some interface ICs such as MCP17XX and MCP25XX, and the market price is falling back to the normal level.        Some customers' focus is on futures scheduling. Although some models still have a reference delivery time of 40-50 weeks or more, the customer's attitude is not very exclusive, but feedback has been included in the scheduling reference. However, customers who can accept futures and place orders also have very high price requirements.        The delivery time of EEPROM is still tight, over 52 weeks. The delivery time of some general-purpose materials for 8-bit MCU has been shortened to around 30 weeks, and the FPGA delivery time is over 40 weeks. Currently, the overall delivery time of microchips is still relatively long, but gradually returning to normal.                                       ST: The demand for vehicle specifications and materials is still mainstream         The demand for ST in April has decreased, and the price of general MCU has basically dropped to a lower level. The demand for vehicle specifications and materials still dominates. The popular model in April was L9680, mainly used for car airbags, with a transaction price of around 700 yuan (before tax) at the beginning of the month.         ST's latest financial report shows that in Q1 2023, its net revenue was higher than expected, but revenue in the personal electronic products sector decreased. The gross profit margin also exceeded expectations, and ST pointed out that the strong performance of the product portfolio was due to a favorable pricing environment.         ST currently has a backlog of orders in the automotive, electric energy, and professional B2B industries with a coverage rate higher than six quarters. Existing orders will not be shipped smoothly until 2024, and new orders are expected to become normal. The demand for computer related equipment/personal electronic devices continues to be weak, inventory is being corrected, backlog and new orders are decreasing. In Q1, the company's inventory turnover days were 122 days, mainly related to the surplus of personal electronic products and consumer goods. The company's consumer sector may face the problem of empty wafer factories in the second half of the year.                    Qualcomm: Revenue plummeted this quarter,20% layoffs in the mobile department          Qualcomm's demand remains low this month. But there are also some models that are relatively strong: QCA7005-AL33/AR8031-AL1A has had a lot of inquiries this month; There is a continuous shortage of QCA8337N-AL3B materials from Netcom; Consumer product CSR8811A08-ICXR-R has seen an increase in demand this month, but prices have decreased compared to before.          Qualcomm recently released pessimistic financial reports, stating that although its automotive business still has a 20% growth rate, the weak performance of smartphones and IoTs ultimately led to a double-digit decline in revenue for the second quarter of the 2023 fiscal year. In this situation, it is rumored that Qualcomm will lay off 5% of its workforce, with most of the layoffs coming from the mobile department. It is said that Qualcomm's mobile department will lay off about 20% of its workforce.                                       NXP: Overall Demand Decline, Car Chip Revenue Boosts        The overall demand for NXP has declined this month, and customers' demand for scarce materials has decreased. The delivery time of most products is constantly improving, for example, the TJA series has returned to around 12 weeks; The LPC series is around 13-26 weeks old; I. The MX series is around 26 to 36 weeks old. Some products such as the MK series, S912ZVC, and FS32K are still out of stock, with a delivery time of around 40-52 weeks. The overall demand for NXP is still concentrated in the automotive and industrial fields, as well as some non general-purpose materials.         NXP's first quarter performance exceeded expectations, with car chip revenue increasing by 17% year-on-year, and its proportion in total revenue increased from 54.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 58.6%; The revenue of industrial and IoT chips, as well as mobile chips, has declined, while the revenue of communication infrastructure and other products has slightly increased. The continuous growth of the automotive business has compensated for the decline in other businesses.       The number of inventory days in NXP's first quarter channel was 1.6 months, which is the same as the fourth quarter of 2022 and slightly higher than the 1.5 months in the first quarter of 2022. The ongoing downturn in the consumer electronics market has also affected its inventory reduction.                                                                                                        Broadcom: Continued slowdown in demand         The demand of Broadcom continues to slow down. The market price of most materials has tended to the normal order price, and the market price of some materials has even been inverted. The weak demand for consumer and communication products in the first half of the year is basically a foregone conclusion. The shortage of Botong is mainly concentrated in some automotive materials and some high-end PLX materials. The automotive sector mainly comes from overseas demand, while PLX high-end materials mainly benefit from the current popularity of artificial intelligence such as ChatGPT.       Although there is overcapacity and high inventory, the original factory has not added too many orders in the past year. In the first quarter of the 2023 fiscal year, Botong's net revenue increased by 16% year-on-year, and its net profit increased by 53% year-on-year. Its revenue exceeded expectations, with the semiconductor solutions department's revenue increasing by 21% year-on-year, accounting for 80% of its net revenue.                                                                                Renesa: Significant increase in MCU demand         Renesa's MCU demand has significantly increased this month, especially for the R5 and R7 series, which are in short supply. The delivery cycles of these two products are around 40-50 weeks, and it is difficult to arrive early. In addition, the R8Axxxx series is currently in tight supply and delivery times are still unstable, and it is expected to continue to be out of stock.         Renesa's sales and net profit in the first quarter of 2023 have both increased, overall better than expected. However, Renesa is not optimistic about the performance in the second quarter. Renesa is carefully studying the demand trend in the second half of the year and is planning to slightly increase channel inventory to avoid opportunity loss.                                               Ruiyu: The demand has increased slightly         The demand for Ruiyu in April has increased compared to March, with a significant increase in demand for audio decoding and an increase in demand for routers and switches. Popular part numbers include RTL8211FI-CG, ALC888S-VD2-GRRTL8106E-CG, RTL8188ETV-CG, ALC662-VDO-GR, etc. In April, the customer's demand was still mainly for lamination, but currently, the customer is still more watching the market dynamics and the order completion rate is not high.         Ruiyu's Q1 performance was poor, with its gross profit margin dropping to 43.1%, reaching a two-year low. Ruiyu stated that Q1 has seen urgent orders in the PC and consumer electronics fields, and IoT is also better than other applications. Although the upgrade of specifications is slower than expected, the company expects Wi Fi 6 penetration rate to remain strong.                     Ansemy: The demand for vehicle specifications and materials continues to grow         At present, the delivery time of Ansemy has gradually stabilized, and even for high priced chips, there is limited room for growth. What is still lacking today is mainly a group of products that are difficult to replace, such as automotive MOS, automotive IC, and MBRS series used in industry and healthcare.         Ansemy is strengthening its cooperation with customers through joint laboratories and long-term supply agreements. When customers need to ramp up production, Ansemy's supply can keep up with their needs. Ansemy will strive to increase SiC silicon carbide production capacity this year.                           Infineon: High inventory pressure on power devices         The automotive MCU Aurix TC2XX series has been in a hot market recently, and some models are difficult to obtain with just one material. Recently, the demand for power devices has been sluggish and there has been great inventory pressure. However, the high voltage MOS continues to be in short supply, and the TLE series lead time remains around 50 weeks. The TLE8082ESLUMA1 suddenly saw a rise in popularity and price in April, exceeding 1000 yuan, and the market is basically out of stock.         Infineon's planned new 12 inch wafer factory in Dresden, Germany officially broke ground on May 2nd local time. The new wafer factory will mainly produce analog and power semiconductors. By doubling its current production capacity, it will double its share in global chip production to 20% by 2030.                                                                           Vishay: Significant decrease in demand         Vishay's recent demand is mainly focused on components with long and unstable delivery times, such as thin film resistors, MOSFETs, and optocouplers. After February, the shortage of inquiries has decreased significantly, and customer acceptance is also decreasing.         Given that Vishay will join this year's CMSE, they may hope to expand further in the military and space electronics fields. For future markets, it is recommended to seek more PPV opportunities.                                                                                          Lattice: LFXP2 series lead time           Lattice's demand is sluggish this month. At present, the stock level is under great pressure. The market price has dropped significantly. The prices of several conventional models have returned to normal levels, such as LCMX02-640HC-4TG100C/LCMX03LF-2100C-5BG256C/LCMX03LF-2100C-5BG256C. The delivery time of the LFXP2 series is about 12-16 weeks earlier than the previous 52 week delivery time, and there has been no significant improvement in other series. However, it can be foreseen that shortening the delivery time of other series is only a matter of time.            

1.High cost and low yield    Substrate capacity limits market supply     Before manufacturing silicon carbide chips, there are first two steps: substrate manufacturing and epitaxial wafer production, which are important components of silicon carbide devices. From the perspective of the manufacturing cost structure of silicon carbide devices, the substrate cost is the largest, accounting for 47%; The second is the extension cost, accounting for 23%. The substrate is the embryonic form of a silicon carbide wafer. It generates silicon carbide powder raw materials by mixing high-purity silicon powder and carbon powder, and then undergoes a crystal growth method under specific circumstances to generate cylindrical silicon carbide ingots. After processing, cutting, and obtaining a silicon carbide wafer with a thickness of not more than 1mm, the wafer undergoes grinding, polishing, and cleaning to finally obtain a silicon carbide substrate. In the process of manufacturing silicon carbide substrates, there are extremely high requirements for the purity of raw materials, environmental control of crystal growth, and later processing. Therefore, the manufacturing of silicon carbide substrates has problems such as slow growth rate, high requirements for crystal shape, and high cutting wear. This directly leads to the problem of low yield and low productivity of the substrate. The quality of the substrate directly affects the quality of subsequent epitaxial wafer generation, and subsequently affects the performance of finished silicon carbide devices. Therefore, the industry generally believes that the entire silicon carbide industry will still be driven by the production capacity of substrate materials in the next few years. According to Wolfspeed's prediction, the market size of SiC materials in 2022 will be $700 million, and the device market size will be $4.3 billion. In 2026, the SiC material market will reach 1.7 billion US dollars, and the device market will reach 8.9 billion US dollars. From 2022 to 2026, the composite annual growth rate of the material market size was 24.84%, exceeding the composite annual growth rate of the device market size. From the perspective of global silicon carbide substrate market share, Wolfspeed, Roma, and II-VI collectively account for 80%, which means that the pace of expansion of these three companies will limit the supply of substrates. On the other hand, these three enterprises are gradually increasing the proportion of their own materials. For example, Wolfspeed's proportion of their own materials will increase from 40% in 2021 to 56% in 2024, further compressing the capacity that can flow out to the market. In the coming years, there will be greater pressure on global substrate production capacity. As we can see, Mercedes Benz, Land Rover, Lucid Motors, General Motors, Volkswagen, and others have all chosen to cooperate with Wolfspeed, which indicates that the silicon carbide industry is not only at the device end, but even downstream system suppliers or vehicle companies have made capacity reservations to the upstream supply side. Gong Xi pointed out that at present, the yield and quality of the substrate are not satisfactory for both the head enterprises and the enterprises located in the middle. This will lead to substrates that do not meet MOSFET requirements impacting the Schottky diode (SBD) market. If the yield and quality of this part of the substrate can be improved, it can help alleviate the constraints on MOSFET production capacity, which depends on the extent to which the yield and quality of domestic substrate enterprises will improve over time.   2.Substrate and Device Process Iteration    The silicon carbide market is far from mature        Like MOSFETs, silicon based IGBTs are also used in automotive main drive systems. As a very mature power device, its process iteration is improved around the structure. Gong Xi believes that at this point, the development of silicon carbide devices will also be the same. That is, the evolution from planar to trench architectures will bring growth space in performance and cost. In addition, moving from a 6-inch substrate to an 8-inch substrate will also bring about significant changes and become a watershed. Wolfspeed estimates that the cost of a single 8-inch bare chip will be 37% of the current 6-inch by 2024, which means a 63% decrease in cost. This decrease in cost includes an increase in yield and an increase in the number of bare films. Yole pointed out in the report that the 8-inch silicon carbide wafer is considered a key step in expanding production. The goal is obviously to increase production and gain an advantage in the next round of competition. Major IDMs are developing their own 8-inch silicon carbide wafer manufacturing capabilities; As of 2022, some wafer suppliers have started shipping samples. In Yole's power silicon carbide forecast, 6-inch will remain the leading platform for the next five years. However, starting in 2022, the first 8 inches will be considered a strategic resource by market participants. "Overlapping the impact of device configuration, Wolfspeed predicts that if the 8-inch substrate+trench type approach is adopted, the cost of silicon carbide devices will decrease to 28% of the current 6-inch+planar structure in the next few years.". With the changes in process and substrate size, the impact on device costs is enormous. Whether in terms of configuration or production of 8-inch substrates, it will have an impact on the existing market pattern in the future. This iterative process is an opportunity for domestic enterprises.   3. Master the upstream material end     Key points for domestic substitution           The automotive voltage platform is evolving from 400V-600V-800V, but in fact, the evolution speed is faster than the upstream silicon carbide material end, which means that the window periods of the upstream and downstream are mismatched, especially for the domestic silicon carbide industry. This will lead to a greater gap between supply and demand. Who can fill it and how? This is a question that we need to think about. Gong Xi said that many investment institutions simply use the shipment volume of silicon carbide devices or research and development investment in the next few years as a static observation perspective to judge the industry, but the silicon carbide industry still needs to take a dynamic perspective to see the size of the silicon carbide device market in the next few years. The entire silicon carbide industry chain is divided into different segments. The upstream industry chain includes raw materials, substrate materials, and epitaxial materials. The midstream industry includes chip structural design, chip manufacturing, devices, and modules. The downstream application fields include solar photovoltaic, semiconductor, automotive, rail transportation, 5G base stations, building materials, and steel industries. The layout of each enterprise in each link varies, from IDM to substrate or epitaxial materials, to epitaxial wafers and devices. Core think tank experts estimate that if the epitaxial+device approach is used, the gross profit will be around 60%, and if the epitaxial chip business is removed, the gross profit will be around 37%. The gross profit of the latter is basically the same as that of silicon based device manufacturers. This indicates that if you do not master the upstream material end and only make silicon carbide devices, from a gross profit perspective, there is no profit compared to silicon based devices. Adding to the changes in substrate size and device configuration discussed above, the domestic market will face significant cost pressure in the coming years. Therefore, the key to grasping the opportunities of the future industry is to develop the upstream material industry. It will take 2-3 years to convert the size of silicon carbide substrates to 8 inches. In the short term, the cost performance of silicon carbide devices based on 6 inch substrates is still high. However, in the medium to long term, the current large-scale silicon carbide MOSFET manufacturers will face challenges and pressures in the future. Yole said that two main trends are affecting the silicon carbide supply chain: vertical integration of wafer manufacturing and module packaging to generate more revenue in the coming years. In this context, terminal systems companies (such as automotive OEMs) are adopting silicon carbide faster and more flexibly to manage the supply of multiple wafer suppliers on the market.        

At the end of 2022, TSMC announced the mass production of the 3nm process, but it was not until recently that the first 3nm chip manufactured by TSMC was officially released. However, this first 3nm is not part of TSMC's largest customer, Apple, but Marvell's data center chip.   After listening to the wind for so long, it's finally rain, but this does not mean that TSMC's 3nm technology can be perfectly mass-produced.   Previously, TSMC's 3nm node process faced doubts from aspects such as production capacity and yield. Multiple foreign media reports indicate that TSMC is currently making every effort to produce enough 3nm chips to meet Apple's demand, but it is still unable to meet the order quantity requirements. Moreover, the yield rate of TSMC's 3nm chip production is only 55%, which still cannot meet Apple's needs   Faced with the above situation, analysts from different institutions told EE Times that TSMC's true 3nm technology can only expand after the more advanced EUV device NXE: 3800E is launched.     The following is the original text 'TSMC's 3-nm Push Faces Tool Struggles'.     TSMC is working hard to meet the top customer Apple's demand for 3nm chips. According to analysts interviewed by EE Times, the company's difficulties in tools and production have hindered its pace of mass production with world leading technologies.   TSMC and its biggest competitor in the OEM business, Samsung, are competing to produce 3nm products for high-performance computing (HPC) and smartphones for customers such as Apple and Nvidia. Moreover, TSMC became the latest company to claim leadership in 3nm technology in last week's quarterly performance announcement.   Our 3nm technology is the first in the semiconductor industry to be able to produce in large quantities with good yield, "TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia said in a conference call with analysts, Due to our customers' demand for N3 (the term TSMC 3nm) exceeding our supply capacity, we expect N3 to receive comprehensive support from HPC and smartphone applications in 2023. A significant contribution to N3 revenue is expected to begin in the third quarter, and in 2023, N3 will account for a single digit percentage of our total wafer revenue   TSMC, Samsung, and Intel are targeting technology leadership to serve CPU design vendors including Apple, NVIDIA, and others. The ultimate leader will gain the largest profit share in the OEM business, which has grown faster than the entire semiconductor industry for decades. Mehdi Hosseini, an analyst at Susquehanna International Group, said that TSMC still holds the top spot.   The trick of outsourcing factories is to enable extremely expensive production tools from multiple suppliers to operate together with maximum efficiency.     Hosseini stated in a report he provided to EE Times, "In our view, TSMC remains the preferred foundry for advanced nodes because Samsung has not yet demonstrated stable advanced process technology, and IFS (Intel OEM Services) is still a few years away from providing competitive solutions       01 The yield at 3nm is only 55% EUV devices waiting for updates   Hosseini stated that in the second half of 2023, TSMC will produce Apple's A17 and M3 processors at N3 nodes, as well as ASIC based server CPUs at N4 and N3 nodes. Moreover, TSMC will also manufacture Intel's Meteor Lake graphics chips at N5 nodes, AMD's Genoa and Nvidia's Grace processors at N5 and N4 nodes, and Nvidia's H100 GPU at N5 nodes.     Brett Simpson, a senior analyst at Arete Research, stated in a report provided to EE Times that Apple will only pay TSMC for known qualified chips, rather than standard wafer prices, at least in the first three to four quarters of N3 and before the yield rises to around 70%.     We believe that TSMC will work with Apple to implement normal wafer based pricing for N3 in the first half of 2024, with an average selling price of approximately $16000-17000, "Simpson said." Currently, we believe that TSMC's N3 yield for A17 and M3 processors is around 55% (a healthy level at this stage of N3 development), and TSMC appears to be increasing yield by more than 5 points per quarter as planned     The Arete report states that for the iPhone A17 chip, TSMC will make 82 mask layers, and the chip size may range from 100 to 110 millimeters. The report adds that this means that the production of each wafer is approximately 620 chips, with a wafer cycle of four months. The chip size of M3 may be around 135-150 millimeters, with a production capacity of approximately 450 chips per wafer.     Simpson stated that TSMC's current focus is to optimize production and wafer cycle time through this early improvement to drive efficiency.     Hosseini said that TSMC delayed the launch and mass production of 3nm due to the need to use ASML's EUV lithography technology for multiple exposure, "Although the high cost of EUV multiple exposure makes the cost/benefit of EUV unattractive, relaxing the design rules and reducing the number of exposures will lead to an increase in the size of bare crystals. He added that before the EUV NXE: 3800E of ASML with higher throughput is launched in the second half of 2023, the" real "3nm node will not be able to expand.     According to Hosseini, NXE: 3800E will help to increase wafer production, which is about 30% higher than the current NXE: 3600D, and reduce the overall cost of EUV multiple exposure.     Hosseini stated in the report that TSMC will accelerate the adoption of NXE: 3800E in the first half of 2024, as foundries provide N3E technology and other variants of 3nm nodes to more customers.     TSMC is obtaining assistance with lithography technology from customer Nvidia.     Wei Zhejia stated that "cuLitho" software and hardware are transferring expensive operations to Nvidia GPUs, which will help TSMC deploy reverse lithography technology and deeper learning.     02 Expected performance decline in 2023 But it's even harder for other OEM factories   TSMC expects its next node, N2, to begin production in 2025.     At N2, we have observed high customer interest and engagement, "Wei Zhejia said." Our 2nm technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry in terms of density and energy efficiency when launched, and will further expand our technology leadership position in the future     TSMC stated that the revised level of chip inventory that has swept the entire industry has exceeded TSMC's expectations three months ago and may continue into the third quarter of this year. Therefore, TSMC now predicts that its revenue in 2023 may experience its first decline in nearly a decade, and its sales may decline by a single digit percentage. Simpson said, "We believe that for other OEM companies, sales in 2023 may decline more than TSMC, and a sluggish recovery in the second half of the year is the norm     Despite the economic downturn, TSMC still adheres to the same capital expenditure budget as last year, ranging from approximately $32 billion to $36 billion. Due to a decrease in equipment utilization, TSMC hopes for a rebound in its business in the third quarter.     Capacity utilization is a key indicator of profitability.     We expect mixed utilization to reach a low point of approximately 66% in the second quarter of 2023, with N7 utilization below 50%, "Hosseini said." We expect utilization to rebound in the second half of 2023, driven by new product upgrades                                                                                    

⏵ The progress of the TSMC US plant has been delayed, and the delivery of the Zhongke 2 Nanometer Plant has been further delayed           According to a semiconductor equipment supply chain source, the overall construction and equipment installation progress of TSMC's new wafer factory in Arizona, US, has been delayed, according to Jiwei.com. It is reported that from the current engineering and equipment installation progress, it is unlikely that TSMC's new US wafer factory will be fully put into operation in 2024, and may be postponed to 2025. In addition, due to the lack of approval for the second phase expansion of the China Science and Technology Taichung Park for the construction of the TSMC 2 Nanometer Factory, on March 13, it was announced again that the development schedule would be postponed. It is expected to complete the land acquisition and related planning procedures in October. After the land is delivered in November, public works and manufacturers will start construction simultaneously, affecting the layout progress of the next generation advanced manufacturing process of TSMC.   ⏵ Samsung's strong attack on 4nm, grabbing the power of a single unit         South Korean media have revealed that Samsung is rapidly catching up with the advanced wafer foundry process, and will start mass production of the third generation 4nm process in the first half of this year, with improvements in efficiency, power consumption, and chip area reduction. This will win orders from major customers of TSMC such as Qualcomm, AMD, and Nvidia, setting off a new wave of order grabbing battles with TSMC. ⏵ Due to the decline in demand from China and the United States, the revenue of major IT factories in Taiwan has shrunk, hitting a new low in two years         Major enterprises in Taiwan, which supply a large number of products and semiconductors to customers such as Apple and Microsoft, have seen a sharp downturn in their performance, mainly due to the decline in demand for products such as PCs and smartphones centered in the United States and China, and it is currently impossible to predict when demand will recover. In February 2023, the total revenue of the 19 major IT factories in Taiwan that were listed as "Asia 300" constituent stocks was NT $17.8 billion, down 8.5% from the same month last year. For the third time in four months, they fell into contraction, with monthly revenue reaching a new low in two years (since February 2021, NT $937.4 billion).

Negative growth for 7 consecutive months          According to data from WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization), the global semiconductor market size decreased by 20.1% year-on-year in January 2023, which is even worse than the 18.1% year-on-year decrease in December 2022. From July 2022, there has been negative growth for 7 consecutive months, and from November 2022, there has been double-digit negative growth for 3 consecutive months. The storage market is particularly bad, with a year-on-year decrease of 58.6% in January 2023, which is even worse compared to a year-on-year decrease of 46.2% in December 2022. Although these figures are calculated in terms of amount, in fact, they are also decreasing in terms of quantity. According to the shipment volume data in January 2023, DRAM and NAND decreased by about 40% compared to the same period last year. In other words, due to excess supply capacity, memory manufacturers can only choose between "bearing excess inventory" and "responding to price reduction requirements.". However, although reports of declining storage unit prices are increasing, the decline is not significant. The author predicts that the subsequent decline should accelerate. The reason why the situation in the storage market is so serious is due to sluggish demand for PCs and smartphones, as well as the deterioration in the performance of large IT vendors including GAFA (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon). Since the beginning of 2021, the semiconductor shortage has received widespread attention as a social issue. At that time, the shortage was for semiconductor products such as MCU, analog, discrete devices, etc. that did not require the most cutting-edge technology. So, what about these shortages beyond storage? From "scarcity" to "excess"?       Looking at the MCU market, the performance in January 2023 was strong, surpassing the 21.9% growth rate in the same month last year and the 14.8% growth rate in December 2022. In particular, automotive MCU sales increased by 28.2% in January 2023 and 25.8% in December 2022. The decline of semiconductors seems to have "blown away". However, the shortage seems to be coming to an end, and extended delivery times are returning to normal. The simulated market declined 4.8% year-on-year in January 2023, down from 4.4% year-on-year growth in December 2022 to negative growth. Careful observation shows that the growth of the general analog chip market has turned negative from 8.1% in January 2023 and 3.1% in December 2022, but the performance of the automotive simulation market is very good, although it is not as good as the growth of 28.1% in January 2023 and 36.4% in December 2022. Like automotive MCUs, the shortage of automotive analog chips seems to be coming to an end, but the situation for general-purpose analog chips may be changing from a shortage to an excess. Literally, universal analog chips are widely used in various applications. When the global COVID-19 epidemic broke out, users were scattered around the world, and distribution networks could not operate normally, resulting in shortages everywhere, which is likely to lead to a surge in temporary demand. In the automotive sector, smart keys are equipped with some kind of universal analog chip, which is still in short supply. The reason for the shortage may be the increase in demand, but as general-purpose analog chips have multiple applications in addition to vehicles, it cannot be ruled out that a temporary surge in demand may lead to a shortage. It is necessary for us to observe its development for a period of time. Infineon is the key to improving the shortage of power devices          The discrete device market grew 0.6% year-on-year in January 2023, down from 4.8% in December 2022. Careful observation shows that the small signal transistors used for current control less than 1W decreased by 31.5% in January 2023, down from 25.6% in December 2022; Power transistors of 1W or more used for current control increased by 13.9% in January 2023, down from 16.1% in December 2022, but their performance remained strong.      Discrete devices are highly versatile semiconductors with a wide range of applications, so they are still products prone to temporary needs. In 2021, when the demand for small signal transistors surged, it was said that "the demand for all applications is increasing, which seems to be an unusual situation.". In fact, this is a typical phenomenon of temporary demand expansion. The decline in transistors related to the discrete device market from December 2022 to January 2023 is estimated to be the result of the disappearance of this temporary demand.    On the other hand, power transistors are also used in various applications, but due to theelectrification of automobiles, the demand for on-board devices has increased dramatically, which is different from small signal transistors. In other words, actual demand is surging, not fake demand. The delivery time of hybrid vehicles is longer than that of gasoline vehicles, which can also be inferred from the current situation that the battle for power transistors is unfolding. There is no doubt that the procurement of power transistors has become a bottleneck for automotive manufacturers.